I admit I struggle with the SOI, ENSO, El Niño,.. for info look at BOM

As long as we remain in the 50th percentile, the historical maximum temperature Dec-Feb doesn’t look too bad:
(click on figure to enlarge)

The prediction for this year is steady as she goes:

In all regions we are cycling there is only a 50% chance of being above the median maximum temperature. This must be close to a 50% chance of tossing heads. So I’ve done the test and am happy to report: tails. Looks like we’re in luck and the maximum temperature won’t be above the median.

Breaking News (22/12/09)

In a shocking reversal climatic indications, the southern victorian coast line is now predicted to suffer a veritable cool snap (Jan-Mar 2010).

That’s right the “50% chance of being above the median maximum temperature” has now plummeted to the 30-35% range, the lowest in Australia. All because of the Xmas Epic coin toss!. There has not been such a statistical anomaly since “Rozencrantz and Guildenstern are dead“. The wider implications of this climate changing coin are being pursued and we are in close contact with Penny Wong as to weather we decide future climate with the coin. There is also a concomitant decrease in the likelihood of exceeding the median minimum temperature: Xmas Epic rug up!

In any case, early mornings are indicated. On the road at 6am. Data courtesy of Geoscience Australia
MELBOURNE CITY 27/12/2009 Rise 0558 Set 2044
OCEAN GROVE 28/12/2009 Rise 0559 Set 2047
BIRREGURRA 29/12/2009 Rise 0602 Set 2051
COBDEN 30/12/2009 Rise 0606 Set 2054
WARRNAMBOOL 31/12/2009 Rise 0609 Set 2057
YAMBUK 01/01/2010 Rise 0611 Set 2058
NARRAWONG 02/01/2010 Rise 0604 Set 2024
NELSON 03/01/2010 Rise 0618 Set 2102
MOUNT GAMBIER 04/01/2010 Rise 0551 Set 2032
BEACHPORT 05/01/2010 Rise 0556 Set 2034
KINGSTON 06/01/2010 Rise 0559 Set 2033
POLICEMAN POINT 07/01/2010 Rise 0603 Set 2032
HACKS POINT 08/01/2010 Rise 0604 Set 2032
WELLINGTON 09/01/2010 Rise 0608 Set 2031
HAHNDORF 10/01/2010 Rise 0612 Set 2032

128 km Melbourne Airport Radar Loop
128 km Mt Gambier Radar Loop
128 km Adelaide (Sellicks Hill) Radar Loop

As expected there is less wind in the morning. We should have most of the days riding done by 9am, so we should encounter even less wind.
(click on image to enlarge)

Yes, there is a slight bias west to east, but main trend is south to north, so I reckon we’re going in the right direction.